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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has built a highly consolidated, adaptive authoritarian regime. Examining how the Belarusian political system is structured and how its relationships with its citizens, Russia, and the West have evolved may help shed light on possible paths that Minsk could take as Lukashenko ages and economic challenges continue to mount. Belarus is the most Russianized of the post-Soviet countries, yet its relations with Russia have become more complex in recent years. Belarus and Russia also enjoy robust linguistic and cultural ties. He has managed to build one of the most consolidated, adaptive authoritarian regimes in the post-Soviet space, and perhaps in the world. When economic disputes and other disagreements between Moscow and Minsk have unfolded, Lukashenko has shown an independent streak and has courted European support to gain leverage when doing so suits him.
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For Russia, risks abound. Until , Belarus had embraced its Soviet legacy identity. Elites tolerated and even co-opted a more nationalist agenda including re-interpretations of history and the increased visiblity of nationalist symbols and a clearer delineation emerged between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian public groups in Belarus, inspired also in part by the Ukrainian reform process, though this was not clearly reflected in institutional politics. Belarusian national identity lacks the deeper anti-Russian sentiment inhrerent in that of Ukraine. Russia responded by enhancing its profile in Belarus through increased Russkiy Mir and Rossotrunichestvo activities to positively shape public opinion, even as it distanced itself from Lukashenka. In the last few years, Russia more publicly challenged Lukashenka to make good on his pledges by signing and implementing the thirty-one roadmaps for Union State integration. The Wagner debacle of July 29 further strained relations, not least as President Alyksandr Lukashenka instrumentalized the arrests to suggest that Russia was the greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty and only he could defend its statehood.
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Want to get the full story? Click the links below for full-length articles in Russian. Open-source evidence shows that the men are indeed part of the Putin-linked Wagner paramilitary group, with combat experience in Donbas and Syria. Most are Russian citizens, but 9 are Ukrainian citizens, and one Belarusian.
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Belarus , [a] officially the Republic of Belarus , [b] is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Minsk is the country's capital and largest city.
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